Srinagar, 08 November: An independent weather forecaster known by the name Kashmir Weather has released its forecast for Winter 2020-21.
The Forecast Reads:
“1. Forecast from 10th November to 31st November:
The latest forecast based on the various global climate models and my personal research suggest that there is high probability that the rainfall will be above normal in Kashmir region while normal to below normal in Jammu region.
The probability forecasts suggest a very low probability (only 5%) that rainfall will be deficient in Kashmir region. On the other hand, it also suggests a very high probability of rainfall to be above normal (45%).
The average maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal (0.5°C to 1°C) for Kashmir region. While it will be around normal for Jammu region.
(Normal Range: Within -0.5°C and 0.5°C).
The average minimum temperatures are likely to be around normal in both the regions.
- Forecast for the month of December:
The forecast suggests that there will be below normal precipitation in both the regions i.e. Jammu and Kashmir.
The average maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in most parts of J&K (≥ 1°C).
The average minimum temperatures are likely to be cooler than normal (≤1°C) in most parts of Jammu and Kashmir.
The probability forecasts suggest a very low probability (only 10%) of rainfall to be above normal in Kashmir region. On the other hand, it also suggests a very high probability of rainfall to be below normal (55%).
- Forecast for the month of January:
The forecast indicates that there will be around normal precipitation. But some of the highly accurate models suggest that it will be below normal.
The average maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal (≥ 0.5°C) in most parts of Jammu and Kashmir. While average minimum temperatures are likely to be normal.
(Normal Range: Within -0.5°C and 0.5°C).
- Forecast for the month of February:
A detailed forecast will be available later, as different models currently show a lot of variations in forecasts.
However, maximum temperatures may stay above normal (≥ 0.8°C).
- SST conditions in the Pacific Ocean
Currently, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as well as the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate La Niña conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April).
References:
ECMWF, GFS/NCEP, UKMO, DWD, Sintex F1, F2, F2-3DVAR + 108memb mean, CMCC, CFSv 2, CanSIPS, models by Meteo France & JMA.
Accuweather and SASCOF.”
